The Price Action today, at least in the ES and what appears to be across the boards is on par with the Price Action that was experienced pretty much all week. Slow, lethargic, wispy and at times directionless. At any rate this is another pick your spots and take your shots market today.
And so it goes...
I'm looking to get filled Short below a Key Level I have plotted on my chart above.
Oddly enough, 2 Striker Levels line up pretty close with where I initially placed my 2 Targets, but after further investigation and a brief analysis I've decided to place my 2 targets at these precise Striker Levels 6150 as, if you recall I have been writing about this level practically all week. The Target #2 will be parked at the 6145 Striker Level 5 Points below Target #1.
So, the stage is set. I'm simply waiting on Price to rise up and meet with my Resting Short Order. If I don't get the fill, price continues to drop or, worse case scenario it blows right through my Resting Order and continues to go higher, I'll kill the trade at 6157. You may be asking, "Hey Sharp-Shooter, then why not just set your initial hard stop at that 6157 level?"
I have my reasons for doing it this way as the 6163.25 is a calculated hard stop and given the TOD I'll have betters odds of manually managing my position, should this happen.
Ugh! It's like watching paint dry or grass grow... But, the price action is as expected today with Powell flapping his jaw again today.
Alright! I just got tapped in, pretty convincingly as well. I seems to me that 'the buyers' are attempting to keep Price between the 6151 and the 6157 zone. Given the TOD at this point, I'm looking at this price action activity as a sort of time distortion, meaning Price is being held in a holding pattern at this place at this time.
I'm anticipating some late morning Price manipulation, prior to the Overlap. There is some internal liquidity to sweep below at the 6140 level. I believe for now it'll only be a sweep, not a run. So, given the current time and the time I believe this may take to evolve. So, I'll take a potential $5.00 haircut on the position in return for what I believe will be a good T-2 position at this point on the day. Weighing the risks (Price Action + TOD + Pace of the Market) I believe it's a much safer bet.
As you can see in this chart view, Price is resting between that Key Level and a Striker Level. It could potentially turn into a ping-pong match, but, as I stated above, my RM is in place.
I'll be using Price Action as the Primary analysis for marking this position, but I'll be using Order Flow to hopefully guide Price lower.... Let's see how this is going to play out.
Target T-1 Executed!!!
4.75 Points on the first part of this trade. That's exactly what I wanted to see. Now, it's time to lock in some gains...
Stop manually moved down to the 6153.00 Level, locking in 1.75 points. Even though there are only single signals on those down candles, they're consistent, Volume is consistent and steady, Negative Delta is holding steady and Cumulative Delta following suit.
A nice Negative Stack is formed above that 6150 Level. Feeling pretty good about locking in a bit more gains. My stop is again manually moved down to the 6151.25 Level.
A little hiccup at 6147, but nothing to look twice at...
There's a lot going on in this chart, but my Target is 2 ticks from getting tapped. It's definitely in the crosshairs.
Thin yellow dotted lines are the Unfinished Auctions one completed at the 6149 and another to be seen at the 6142. So, there's a bit of a conundrum here and I'm curious to see how this plays out. My thought is that Price cuts through and taps the 6140 fulfilling that Internal Liquidity Sweep. Then bouncing Price back up to flirt with that second Key Level 6144 (Red Dash-Dot Line) perhaps until the Afternoon Macro... Post 1:30PM EST 🤷♂️
BOOM!
Gotcha Bitch!!!
Target T-2 Executed Took out my 6145 Target fora total of 9.75 Points on the trade.
Now, I'm real curious if Price did in fact decided to drop even lower and to what price...
Alright! So the analysis that I put in place in the beginning of this post, before the trade played out basically to the tick!
As Price heads back up to flirt with that Key Level... 😉